“Go on,” Branch said, munching methodically on a piece of bread.
“Consider the universe as the CPC sees it.
A world of strict causality. A logical, coherent universe. In this world, every effect has a cause. Every factor can be instantly accounted for.
“That’s not a picture of the real world. There is no explanation for everything, really. The CPC is built to see a specialized universe, and to extrapolate on the basis of that.”
“So,” Margraves said, “what would you do?”
“Throw the world out of joint,” Ellsner said.
“Bring in uncertainty.
Add a human factor that the machines can’t calculate.”
“How can you introduce uncertainty in a chess game?” Branch asked, interested in spite of himself.
“By sneezing at a crucial moment, perhaps.
How could a machine calculate that?”
“It wouldn’t have to.
It would just classify it as extraneous noise, and ignore it.”
“True.”
Ellsner thought for a moment.
“This battle—how long will it take once the actual hostilities are begun?”
“About six minutes,” Branch told him.
“Plus or minus twenty seconds.”
“That confirms an idea of mine,” Ellsner said.
“The chess game analogy you use is faulty.
There’s no real comparison.”
“It’s a convenient way of thinking of it,” Margraves said.
“But it’s an untrue way of thinking of it.
Checkmating a king can’t be equated with destroying a fleet. Nor is the rest of the situation like chess.
In chess you play by rules previously agreed upon by the players.
In this game you can make up your own rules.”
“This game has inherent rules of its own,” Branch said.
“No,” Ellsner said.
“Only the CPCs have rules.
How about this?
Suppose you dispensed with the CPCs?
Gave every commander his head, told him to attack on his own, with no pattern.
What would happen?”
“It wouldn’t work,” Margraves told him. “The CPC can still total the picture, on the basis of the planning ability of the average human.
More than that, they can handle the attack of a few thousand second-rate calculators—humans—with ease.
It would be like shooting clay pigeons.”
“But you’ve got to try something,” Ellsner pleaded.
“Now wait a minute,” Branch said.
“You can spout theory all you want.
I know what the CPCs tell me, and I believe them.
I’m still in command of this fleet, and I’m not going to risk the lives in my command on some harebrained scheme.”
“Harebrained schemes sometimes win wars,” Ellsner said. “They usually lose them.”
“The war is lost already, by your own admission.”
“I can still wait for them to make a mistake.”
“Do you think it will come?”
“No.”
“Well then?”
“I’m still going to wait.”
The rest of the meal was completed in moody silence.
Afterward, Ellsner went to his room.